Moritz: Probability of failure to refinance very low (1%) to low (5%) due to the following reasons in my assessment.
- Current still very strong underlying profitability Bumble guides to Adj. Ebitda of 61-65million in Q4 2025 with i think at least 40million in cash generation (?) → Potential to generate at least 100-150m in 2026?
- Taking cash into consideration net debt sits at around 450m (-583m debt, +120m cash, +15m more receivables than payables) in Q3 2025. Assuming 40m of cash inflows in Q4 2025 it would be 410m at the end of 2025.
→ 250-300million that need to be refinanced in beginning of 2027 (?)
Cost cutting potential
- Gross profits very defensible. Cost of revenue largely a % of revenue as it’s app store fees. Estimated fixed cost basis is 50million the rest is variable. This means the CoR % of revenue will go up if revenue drop but gross profit will stay healthy Cost of Revenues
- Marketing spend could be cut esp. in low monetizing non-core world regions. Marketing cuts in Q2 2025, Q3 2025 resulted in drastic decrease in low-monetizing payer numbers, but Bumble revenue declined only moderately due to a significant higher ARPU. ← This highlights potential to cut advertising spend in those expansion markets and increase cash flows ← MM: I believe even without advertising spend (worst case) There should be some level of stability to revenues due to bumbles brand equity and network effects. (Revenues will suffer but not go instantly to 0)
- MM: I believe pricing could be increased if absolutely needed. It’s currently very similar to competitor pricing. ← to do: analyze pricing between bumble and tinder, hinge in more detail for all items. ← Moritz: I think this might costs them users but could be a way to boost short term revenue if needed
- Other cost cutting potentials e.g. in development or maybe G&A. Maybe at least 10-20m in G&A and 20-40m in product if truely needed? Cost cutting case (challenged again) ( For reference in 2019 Bumble was profitable with less than 500m in revenue. At the time G&A was 67m and product 39m.)
Other options
Main risks: Can they stabilize their business, how many users are they loosing, organically to Hinge, how is macro dating fatigue developing? See also: risk & weaknesses section on Bumble Thesis
See also previous decisions: 2025-11-06: Decided against - Reduce Bumble after Q3 2025 Earnings by around 50% due to weak results
2025-12-10: Decided for - Increasing Bumble by 100% post good findings on leadership + Hinge CEO leaves Match Group
Current decision: 2026-02-09: Decided for - reduce Bumble again by 50%+