<aside> ☝
Disclaimer: This is an experimental format & is not investment advice. DYOR. Investing can lead to total loss of capital.
</aside>
<aside> 👇 Below is the Prioritization Arguments page where anyone working on this thesis can propose their reasons for why a different constraint should be higher up the priority list. If you disagree with the current #1, make your case there.
Prioritization Arguments (Bumble)
</aside>
<aside> ⚜️
The Core Thesis - Ai matchmaking will solve “swiping fatigue” + lead to massive monetization opportunity.
The core thesis, premise + center piece behind the Bumble + Match.com investments is our belief that AI will be able to solve the current largest pain-point in online dating: understanding who might be a highly compatible partner without a lot of texting. This will solve the much cited “swiping fatigue” and lead to an incredible monetization opportunity for serious high intent dating apps due to the massive fundamental value of finding the right partner. For more read:
How LLMs could revolutionize dating
Description
Bumble is Moritz second largest position as of March 2026. (Around 13% of Portfolio). It’s super cheaply valued at EV/FCF below 5 and has tremendous upside potential if AI matchmaking revolutionizes dating. We believe that the Bumble management is mission driven and well positioned to lead the charge on dating in the future.
InvestmentWiki - Buy. Price Target $8.5 based on scenarios (Note: Very preliminary. Scenarios need to be described + calculated better. Methodology for calculating a price target is not well developed at the moment. For a turnaround play like Bumble we put way more emphasis on possible scenarios than on DCFs)
Decisions 2025-11-06: Decided against - Reduce Bumble after Q3 2025 Earnings by around 50% due to weak results
2026-02-09: Decided for - reduce Bumble again by 50%+
2026-03-11: Decided for - Buy back sold Bumble shares immediately after Q4 2025 earnings
</aside>