Yes, the lower projection is supported by the data, though specifically correcting for the timing of the expense reversals strengthens the thesis. The $25–$35 million range for 2026 General and Administrative (G&A) Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) appears accurate because the 2025 figures were indeed artificially suppressed by one-time forfeiture credits, while the "clean" Q3 data establishes a new, lower structural baseline following the massive workforce reductions.

Here is the detailed evidence supporting this revised outlook:

1. The "Illusion" of 2025: Expense Reversals Distorted the Numbers

You are correct that 2025 included artificial lows. Specifically, the departure of senior executives and the broader workforce reduction triggered significant forfeitures (where unvested stock is cancelled, creating a "credit" on the income statement).

• Q1 2025 Impact: G&A SBC was actually a credit of $(3.9) million rather than an expense [1]. This was driven by the forfeiture of unvested awards associated with departing executives and employees during the restructuring [1].
• Q2 2025 Impact: While Product Development SBC stabilized to a positive $1.6 million in Q2 2025, it remained significantly below historical levels (compared to negative $(5.6) million in Q2 2024 due to prior restructuring) [2].
• The Effect: These credits masked the true "run rate" cost of the remaining team, making the full-year 2025 G&A SBC appear artificially low.

2. The "Clean" Run Rate: Q3 2025

Q3 2025 is the most reliable baseline for forecasting 2026 because it represents the company's cost structure after the bulk of the 2024 and 2025 restructuring actions were completed.

• Q3 2025 G&A SBC: The company reported $6.4 million in G&A stock-based compensation for the quarter [3].
• Annualized Floor: $6.4 million × 4 quarters = $25.6 million.

This $25.6 million represents the structural "floor" for 2026—effectively what it costs to compensate the current G&A staff without any new major grants or hires.

3. Why 2026 Will Rise to $30–$35 Million

While the floor is ~$26 million, realistic operational factors will likely push the final 2026 number into the $30–$35 million range:

• New Leadership Grants:
  • New CFO (Kevin Cook): Joined in Q3 2025 (August) [4]. His initial equity grants will be fully vesting throughout 2026, adding to the baseline.
  • CEO Transition: Whitney Wolfe Herd returned as CEO in March 2025 [5]. Retention or performance grants associated with her return and the new leadership team will impact G&A expenses.
• Hiring Reinvestment:
  • Management explicitly stated in Q3 2025 that they are making "selective headcount additions primarily in AI, product, and engineering roles" [6]. While most of this hits Product Development, the administrative leadership required to support these new functions will add incremental pressure to G&A SBC.
• Retention Pressures:
  • With the stock price trading lower in 2025 compared to previous years [7, 8], the company may need to issue higher volumes of Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) to retain key talent, as older options may be underwater.

Summary: Revised 2026 G&A Projection

The $25–$35 million estimate is robust because it balances the structural savings from the 30% headcount reduction against the necessary costs of running a public company.