See also: Valuation Model (Sheets)
See also: Match Group Valuation Model
Related tasks: ‣ | ‣
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Company trades at below $4 as of Dec 2025. That’s below $600m market cap and an
EV of around $1billion. That’s very cheap for a dominant, network effect heavy, high margin business like Bumble with around $950m revenue and currently operating cashflows of approx. $200m a year. EV to Sales is around 1. EV to Cashflows is around 5.
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Learning: Instead of having a Notion table we will recreate a similar table in Sheets that synchs well with our other sheets content of bumble and makes sure that everything is always updated without extra work
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| Fy 2025e | Q3 2025e | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | FY 2024 (10-K) | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | $950m | $248M | $247M | $1,076M | $1,051M | $903M | |
| Total Paying Users | 4.1M | ||||||
| Effective Shares outstanding | 150M | ||||||
| Share Price | 5.30 | ||||||
| Market Cap | 800M | ||||||
| Net debt (conservative estimate) | $350M | ||||||
| Enterprise Value | 1.2B (incl. 50m margin of safety | ||||||
| EV/Sales (4x quarter) | 1.3 | 1.2 | |||||
| Operating Cash Flow | $200Me | 76.8M | $71M | $43M | $123M | $182M | $132M |
| EV/Operating Cash Flow | 6 | ||||||
| Adjusted Ebitda | $300Me | $80M | $94M | $64M | $304M | $275M | $227M |
| EV/Adjusted Ebitda | 4 | ||||||
| Net Income | $110 M | $38M (excl. impairment) | $20M | -$768M | -$2M | -$115M | |
| EV / Net Income | 11 | ||||||
| EPS | $0.75 | $0.20 | $0.25 | $0.13 |
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11RxL0YGcwhBI-mpKCGgd1WvCX1DRzBHvBBrlcsTKca8/edit?gid=1748209563#gid=1748209563](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11RxL0YGcwhBI-mpKCGgd1WvCX1DRzBHvBBrlcsTKca8/preview?gid=1748209563#gid=1748209563)
Observations: