Q4 2025 Bumble Earnings - very positive developments

This article is a work in progress!

Results materials:

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Aron’s recommendation:

Pre-earnings recommendation:

Given the risks discussed above, I recommend staying on the sidelines until management demonstrates tangible execution progress and payer/active user trends show sustained stabilization or improvement. </aside>

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Moritz assessment

Super important quarter.

Bumble payers decline of 24.5%:

Management is guiding Bumble App Revenue of $176 million to $182 million (page 2). Given pricing is easier to model, we can use it to arrive at the number of payers.
We assume Bumble average revenue per user (ARPU) rose 12.5%, helped by FX tailwind of **2% and price optimization in Q2 2025**.
Pricing rose 10.5% in Q3 2025 and FX had contributed around 1.6%.
Bumble also optimized prices in Q2 2025 and Q3 2025, which should benefit Q4 2025.
Management has beaten their midpoint revenue guidance by an average of 1.7% in the most recent five quarters.
Bumble download numbers as per Sensor Tower haven’t improved, in fact getting worse (declined by 51% in Q4 2025).
80% of the payer decline in Q3 2025 was self-inflicted i.e. caused by safety and trust features and reduced marketing spend.
Management plans to bring back marketing spend, hence the decline in payers should improve a bit sequentially i.e. instead of decline accelerating by 8% sequentially, it accelerates by 7%.

Result: Arpus increase by 9.5% helped by 3.5-5% FX Tailwind?