Adjust Bumble and Match Group position based on Match Group earnings insights

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Experimental Format. We might change the format over time based on best workflows for us.

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Decision

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Briefing

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Gameplan

Aron:

Feed prepared remarks to Ai with pre-constructed prompt design to give us key insights we are looking for immediately.

Help Moritz to fill out details of Valuation model like diluted shares outstanding etc. etc.

Moritz:

Potential earnings release time: 10:10 pm CET based on last earnings

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Questions

Aron: Do we want to increase Match Group position? I am cautious of increasing the position given my limited understanding of CEO Spencer Rascoff’s leadership style, especially given the recent management turnover at Hinge: </aside>

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Aron

Bumble

Arguments for increasing Bumble by 10% or higher

If the decline in Tinder payers is way slower than my estimate of 7% i.e. decline of less than 4%: Match Group Quarterly Key Numbers (Google Sheets) or if the decline in Tinder MAUs decelerate sharply i.e. from around 10% in Q3 2025 to less than 5%: Dating Apps User Trends (Google Sheets) (weight: 80%)
If management signals it’s seeing a strong recovery in Tinder usage or if it indicates sharp gains from the product launches i.e. sharp increase in app usage or sparks (weight: 75%).
Positive Match Group 2026 guidance: If Match Group guides revenue growth that is at least 2% higher than my revenue growth estimate of 3%, it could signal secular headwinds at Tinder are improving, which is also positive for Bumble (weight: 60%). In Q4 2024 their guidance range was 4% (-3% till +1%)
If by any chance, Match Group mentions Bumble as having stepped up competition in Q4 2025 (weight: 60%).
Further announcements of key executives turnover at Hinge: If there are further announcements of key executives turnover at Hinge e.g. CFO leaving, it could be positive for Bumble as it may foreshadows poor executions at Hinge in the future: (weight: 30%).

Arguments for reducing Bumble by 10% or higher

Acceleration in drop in Tinder payers and users: If Tinder payers decline by more than 9% or if monthly active users decline by more than 12% (weight: 75%).
If Match Group guidance for Q1 2026 and full-year 2026 is materially weaker i.e. flat growth to a decline in Q1 and growth of less than 1% for the full year (weight: 65%)
If Match Group indicates macro headwind was quite strong during the quarter and continues**(weight: 60%)**.
If management signals Hinge is rapidly taking users from Bumble (weight: 55%).

Conclusions

Match Group

Arguments for reducing the position by 10%

Acceleration in drop in Tinder payers and users: If Tinder payers decline by more than 8% or if monthly active users decline by more than 12% (weight: 75%).
If Hinge’s revenue growth in Q4 2025 is below 13% (weight: 75%).
If Match Group says the expect Tinder turnaround to take longer than anticipated (weight: 75%).
Full-year 2026 guidance: If full year 2026 revenue growth guidance is below 1.5% (weight: 60%).
If Match Group announces key executive departure at Hinge such as CFO or CTO (weight: 70%).
If Match Group pushes their expected product launches in 2026 to 2027 such as the new algorithm (weight: 70%).
Q1 2026 guidance: If Q1 2026 revenue guidance is in the negative territory (weight: 60%).

Arguments against reducing by 10%

If actual and guided revenue and earnings stay stable during the quarter (Weight: 80%).
If the decline in Tinder payers is stable (-6% to -7%) and the decline in MAUs is also stable (-9% to -10%) (weight: 75%).
If product launches timelines stay unchanged i.e. if management still expect to launch the new algorithm in second half of 2025 (weight: 70%).
If there are no negative commentaries on Hinge (weight: 60%).

Conclusions

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Arguments for reducing/against increasing the position

Arguments against reducing/for increasing position

Conclusions

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