Return to: Q4 2025 Bumble Earnings - very positive developments

See also: Bumble Valuation Model (Google Sheets)

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Experimental Format. We might change the format over time based on best workflows for us.

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Earnings strategy

• Aron go get Q4 2025 payers, revenue and ARPU
• Moritz to get Q1 2026 or FY 2026 outlook
• Moritz to get other Q4 2025 key numbers such as adjusted EBITDA
• Aron to utilize GPT to get qualitative insights such as insights on AI MatchMaker, Bumble’s new cloud architecture, management turnover, MAU trends, share repurchases, etc.
• GPT: Get me key insights on AI Matchmaker, Bumble new cloud infrastructure, management turnover, MAU trends, share repurchases, outlook for payers and debt situation from this report. Each key insight carrying one bullet point with less than 20 words, giving only what happened and what is expected. I want insights that won't take me more than 20 seconds to digest. </aside>

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Decision

• Buy back of previous position + increased further in the following days. (Note: This is not investment advice and informational only) </aside>

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Briefing

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Questions

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Aron

Q4 2025 Earnings Decision Framework

Conclusions

Positive New Developments

• 9: Faster product iteration and gross margin gain once Bumble 2.0 is launched: ‣
• 8: First-mover AI Matchmaker advantage among major dating apps: [Bumble is aead of Tinder and Hinge in building the AI Matchmaker. Match Group is looking for M&A opportunities (e.g. Overtone which is just starting) but Bumble is building it.](https://curved-newsboy-c80.notion.site/Bumble-is-aead-of-Tinder-and-Hinge-in-building-the-AI-Matchmaker-Match-Group-is-looking-for-M-A-opp-321950cb73778028a724f009ed3767a0)
• 8: Improved confidence on Wolf Herd’s ability to run the now product-first company: [Withney Wolfe Heard not experienced running Product or Finance/Operations (had been taken care by her businesspartner Andrev at Badoo) + culture looks remote. C-Suite not at same place ← Now spends 90% of her time in product and her commentary shows she’s very much involved](https://curved-newsboy-c80.notion.site/Withney-Wolfe-Heard-not-experienced-running-Product-or-Finance-Operations-had-been-taken-care-by-he-30b950cb7377804dad7ced5b32cfc416)
• 8: Improved confidence on its ability to refinance debt: Strong adjusted EBITDA developments in Q4 2025 and guidance improves our confidence on its ability to refinance debt.
• 8: Payers may not be heavily dependent on performance marketing as we had earlier concluded: Despite marketing spend declining 38% y/y in Q4 2025 (more than we expected), payer numbers still came in line with expectations. This is against our earlier assessment that payers are heavily dependent on performance marketing.
• 7: Execution is moving according to plan and the use of AI to build products increases the chance of success: Management reiterated Q2 2026 launch of Bumble 2.0 and commentaries on AI Matchmaker buildout suggest that execution is moving according to the plan.

Risks

• 10: Bumble had integrity issues in the past, hence hard to fully trust their highly positive Q4 2025 earnings commentary: ‣

• 10: Continued decline in users, with normalized pace likely to be still 10%: Users are on declining trajectory. Even at a normalized rate they could be down 10-15%+ a year in 2026 maybe the same rate as Tinder. It could be even worse

• 9: Migration risks: Churn from transitioning from Bumble 1.0 to Bumble 2.0.

  • The team is Austin may not be fully staffed to handle it
  • Cybersecurity division in disarray going into migration?

• 9: Profit sustainability risks:

  • Marketing spend could rise significantly again alongside product refresh cycle. Product spend could also be materially higher, impacting adjusted EBITDA and lowering incentive for creditors.
  • Headwind from reduction in performance marketing in Q1 2026 may have been offset by better demand during Christmas holidays, Valentine season and new year resolutions?
  • Payers may lag performance marketing spend a bit? → If this is the case and Q1 2026 was supported by seasonal factors, payer declines beyond Q2 may be worse forcing Bumble to significantly increase marketing spend again.

• Earlier Research on financial position

• Risk 9: 15% Bumble Yield after Software Sell Off (2026-March)

• Bumble has already received (March 13, 2026) commitment of $475 m term loan at unspecified interest rate

• More context on re-financing partners, refiancing terms & going concern

• More on ongoing concern, duration, covenant

• What happens if maintenance covenants are breached

• Restructuring in bankruptcy (in general)

• Bumble scenario in bankrupty (with concrete numbers ← answer a bit bullshitty)

• Previous Covenant of Bumble

Discussion in call between Mike, Aron, Moritz 17-March-2026 stream on Riverside : https://riverside.com/dashboard/editor/preview/d104c634-6699-43cb-b7c3-bdc40e3c258c/69b9685edf6f2ab67e28f17f?share-token=854e648b4ede80fcb829&content-shared=recording-preview

Riverside Studio

To Do

• [ ] Simulate the what covenant would look like.
• 8: Share price volatility around refinancing risk:
  • Creditors may want to see successful migration (and tightening credit market as mentioned above) and stabilization in user numbers first before refinancing. Bumble’s desire is probably to refinance before migration due to potential migration issues. This conflict may put investors on the edge.
• 7: Risk that AI Matchmaker doesn’t get strong reception: ‣
• 4: Analysts are still divided following the results: Post-earnings analysts’ opinions

What could go wrong

• Financing might fail
• 2.0 Launch might fail
• Horrible payer numbers in 2 Quarter

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