This article is a work in progress!
Return to: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/q3-2025-bumble-earnings/539?u=aron |
See also: **Bumble Valuation Model (Google Sheets)** | Q2 2025 Bumble Earnings
See also: Q3 2025 - 10Q
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Y/Y | Q3 2025 Aron’s Expectation | YoY Growth | Q3 2025 actual Numbers | Q4 2025 Aron’s Expectation | YoY Growth | Q3 2025 Management Guidance | Q4 2025 Management Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $248.2 M | -7.6% | $240.2-$249.3 M | -12.2% to -8.9% | 246.2 | $236.9 M | -9.5% | $240-$248 M | $216-224 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $94.6 M | 26.1% | $80.5- $95.4 M | -2.5% to +15.6% | 83.2 | $79-$84 M | $61-65 | ||
| Total payers | 3,777 T | -8.7% | 3,730-3,801 T | -12.4% to -10.7% | 3.575 | ||||
| Bumble app Payers | 2,500 T | -11.3% | 2,496-2,539 T | -13.0% to -11.5% | 2,344 | ||||
| Badoo and other payers | 1,277 T | -3.3% | 1,234-1,261 T | -11% to -9% | 1,230 | ||||
| Total average ARPU | $21.69 | 1.5% | $21.24-$21.65 | +0.4% to +2.3% | 22.64 | ||||
| EPS | -$2.45 | $0.23-$0.31 | 0.33 | ||||||
| EBITDA | -$332 M | $60.3 -$72.5 M |
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Aron’s recommendation: Given the volatility around the turnaround measures, I don’t expect any significant improvement in revenue and earnings in the near-term. As I result, I recommend a Hold rating as we wait for more insights on the product rollout (and their benefits) as well management’s execution.
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Q3 2025 Bumble Earnings Bullish and Bearish arguments