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See also: Meta Platforms Valuation Model | Q3 2025 Meta Platforms Earnings

Results materials: Q4 2025 Earnings release | 2025 10-K | Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | Q4 2025 Webcast Call

Realtime Discussion Notes

January 28, 2026 9:55 PM (GMT+1) Meta Q4 Discussion

Table of Contents

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Aron’s recommendation

Post-earnings recommendation

Observations

• Their operating income guidance is quite extreme. They will have to grow revenue by at least 25% y/y to have 2026 operating income (assuming opex comes at the midpoint of $162-$169 billion guidance) which is higher than that of 2025 as they are guiding. 25% y/y revenue growth for 2026 is significantly higher than the 22% revenue growth in 2025. Given possible revenue growth decelerations from Q2 due to strong comps and ad model changes in the EU, 25% revenue growth guidance looks extreme to me and will need the core business to be very perfect. If 2026 opex comes at their high-point of $169 billion, revenue will have to grow by 26%: Meta Platforms Valuation Model (Google Sheets) MM: Maybe increases the risk of unsustainable ad loads a bit. There is a risk that ad-loads become too high and Meta calculated with too high loads. (Note: But they have the data and know the business very well)
• Even if 2026 operating income will be higher than that of 2025, operating margin will see significant deceleration i.e. from 41% to around 35%: Meta Platforms Valuation Model (Google Sheets)
• Announced Capex already exceeds spend required for data centers that have already been announced, which may signals management may be ahead of itself in Capex planning. This is positive as it indicates future Capex guidance may not rise quarter over quarter as we have seen in the past (where management kept saying they keep realizing their compute needs is growing): Meta Platforms Planned Data Centers and their Capacity
• Aside from Capex projections, we don’t know to what extent Meta will sign cloud deals. Such deals may not be immediately publicly available, resulting in quarterly earnings coming lower than estimates. “The majority of expense growth will be driven by infrastructure costs, which includes third-party cloud spend, higher depreciation, and higher infrastructure operating expenses,” Meta said (Q3 2025 press release).
• Assuming 2026 revenue growth rate of 20% (including margin of safety), my intrinsic value estimate is around $636. If the business were to continue to develop strongly as management is guiding, intrinsic value could be weigh higher, maybe around $800+
• Zuckerberg seemed not sure about new LLMs performance? i.e. he said he thinks trajectory is more important than current point in time. “And the first set of things that we put out, I think, are going to be more about showing the trajectory that 15 we’re on rather than being a single moment in time. So yes, I’m quite optimistic, but don’t have anything else particularly concrete to share”

Pre-earnings recommendation

• Given that Meta Platforms is currently trading at $648, close to my base intrinsic value estimate of $654, and considering the risk that future cash flows could be further pressured by rising capex, I am recommending a Hold rating. If the share price were to decline to around $500, I would upgrade the rating to Buy. Conversely, if management were to signal a significant increase in capex, I would consider recommending profit-taking. </aside>

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Moritz take

Observations

• I seriously considered buying back some shares that i had sold before and reflected on it 2026-01-29 Does the position feel balanced? but ultimately decided against it as i did not like the trajectory of ad pricing and impressions as and engine that fuels growth for Meta and i do not understand it enough. </aside>

Google Sheets (Edit)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNG7ddMmZnKZK-Q0ePI1yPcKyutXw05gb3xVpS3jDJ8/pubhtml?gid=1455007277#gid=1455007277

Q4 2025 Meta Platforms Cautiously Bullish Outlook

Q4 2025 Meta Platforms Earnings Bullish and Bearish arguments

Full summary of the earnings call

Management guidance and analysts’ estimates

Analysts’ Opinions

Competitor expectations and results