Q4 2025 Match Group Earnings

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Return to: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/q4-2025-match-group-earnings/552?u=aron | Meta Q4 2025 Earnings | ‣

Results materials: https://ir.mtch.com/investor-relations/news-events/quarterly-results/default.aspx

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Aron’s observations and recommendation:

Observations:

Revenue beat was mainly due to FX tailwind. Revenue was flat FX neutral.
Tinder payers has not turned around yet i.e. -8% decline in Q4 2025.
Q1 2026 guidance is highly pegged on FX tailwind (+3.5%), hence no expected major improvement at Tinder.
While management cited improving Tinder registrations as a signal that Tinder payers is turning around, I have little trust on their estimates given they said so in the past as well.

Pre-earnings recommendation:

My confidence level on the outlook is around 70% given the volatility surrounding the turnaround and the lack of enough insights on the quarter. As a result, I have a Hold rating on the stock. In the upcoming earnings call, I’ll be watching closely for updates on the product offensive, trends in Tinder’s user engagement, and other commentary on management’s execution.

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Moritz Take

“Our latest research with Harris Poll shows that roughly 80% of Gen Z singles want meaningful relationships, much higher rates than older generations” (p.5.) ← Good for Bumble not as good for Tinder.
Increase of 50million on Tinder marketing spend but at the same time same decline in revenue as of 2025 (p.11)
Tinder adj. operating margin of 50% expected. Down from 55% in Q4 2025 (p.13) ← plenty opportunity to grow later.
They net settle employee equity awards which i don’t like (p.12)
Continue to use FCF for Buy-backs + Dividends ←Sounds too enthusiastic about it.
Not so much mention of AI? ← Do they get less passionate about it? and too confident on marketing?!
CEO Rascoff talks a bit too much about himself (I did this, i did that?) See also: Spencer Rascoff-Match Group CEO </aside>

Q4 2025 Match Group Outlook (Edit)

[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ADL_L9Pn6KQ2KxQG6mOCJHC1Qwv5UdDArdK2bXl7-UY/edit?gid=1448047850#gid=1448047850](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ADL_L9Pn6KQ2KxQG6mOCJHC1Qwv5UdDArdK2bXl7-UY/preview?gid=1448047850#gid=1448047850)

Q4 2025 Match Group Outlook (Edit)

Full summary of earnings calls

Management guidance and analysts’ estimates

Pre-earnings analysts’ opinions

Post-earnings analysts’ opinions

Insights during the quarter

Real-time earnings call notes

Next steps