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See also: Match Group Valuation Model | Q2 2025 Match Group Earnings
Results: Earnings Release | Earnings call | Supplement Materials (Details) | Q3 2025 Match Group Earnings Call Transcript
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actuals | Q3 2025 Aron’s Expectation | YoY Growth | Q4 2025 Aron’s Expectation | YoY Growth | Q3 2025 Management Guidance | Q3 2025 actual Numbers | Q4 2025 Management Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $909.5– $921.0 M | +1.6 to+ 2.9 % | $879.1 M | +2.2% | $910– $920.0 M | $914 M (+2% y/y) | $865-$875 M (+1-2% y/y) | |
| Operating income | $229.3-$238.3 M | +8.8 to +13.1% | $238.7 M | +6.9% | $221 M | |||
| Adjusted operating income | $330-$335 M | $301 M ($364 excluded one-time settlement) | $350-$355 M | |||||
| EPS | $0.63 to $0.66 | +24.4% to +30.2% | $0.68 | +15.6% | $0.62 | |||
| Total payers | 14,039 | 14,559- 14,607 T | -4.3% to -4.0% | 14,331 T | -3.8% | 14,527 (-5% y/y) | ||
| Tinder Payers | 9,299 -9,309 T | -6.5% to -6.4% | 9,124 T | -5.9% | 9,258 T | |||
| Hinge payers | 1,906- 1,914 | +19.0% to +19.5% | 1,823 T | +19.0% | 1,873 T | |||
| ARPU | $20.40-$20.59 | $20.58 |
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Aron’s recommendation: My confidence level on the outlook is around 65% given the volatility surrounding the turnaround and the lack of enough insights on the quarter. As a result, I have a Hold rating on the stock. In the upcoming earnings call, I’ll be watching closely for updates on the product offensive, trends in Tinder’s user engagement, and other commentary on management’s execution.
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Q3 2025 Match Group Earnings Bullish and Bearish argumentsÂ