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Return to: Q1 2026 Meta Platforms Earnings (Forum) | Meta Platforms

See also: Meta Platforms Valuation Model (Google Sheets) | Q4 2025 Meta Platforms Earnings

Earnings preparations: ‣ | 🔔 Q1 2026 Earnings Calendar

Results materials: Q1 2026 Meta Platforms Earnings Press Release | Q1 2025 Meta Platforms 10-Q

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Aron’s recommendations and earnings observations

Pre-earnings recommendations:

• At its current P/E of around 22x, which I view as fair, combined with improving AI execution, potential for further AI-driven cost efficiencies, solid advertising revenue growth and other opportunities outlined in our broader thesis (Meta Platforms – Notion), I raise my rating from Hold to Buy. Should the shares decline further, the risk/reward would become increasingly attractive.

Observations:

• Q1 2026 revenue and EPS beat estimates, ad pricing and impressions improved sequentially.
• Meta raised Capex guidance for 2026 by $10 B to a range of $125-145 B.
• Meta maintained operating expenses guidance for 2026 in the range of $162-169 B.
• Meta’s Q2 2026 revenue growth guidance in the range of 22%-28% signals strong growth may be loosing steam. However, Meta may be being conservative due to the ongoing Iran conflict. Also, the fact that Meta normally beats the upper-point of its guidance, makes the guidance not a much issue.
• Zuckerberg didn't specify how fast they will launch products on top of the strong foundational models they now have. He cited competitive reasons and the fact that he thinks quality is more important than speed→ This is probably creating concerns among investors.

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Q1 2026 Meta Platforms Bullish Outlook (Edit)

[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNG7ddMmZnKZK-Q0ePI1yPcKyutXw05gb3xVpS3jDJ8/edit?gid=1439776601#gid=1439776601&range=CT:DG](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNG7ddMmZnKZK-Q0ePI1yPcKyutXw05gb3xVpS3jDJ8/preview?gid=1439776601#gid=1439776601&range=CT:DG)

Q1 2026 Meta Platforms Earnings Bullish and Bearish arguments

Earnings call real-time notes

Key assumptions for Q1 2026 base model

Assumes revenue to grow by 30% to 35%

• Tinuiti Ad Benchmark report signals Meta’s Q1 2026 revenue could grow by 30%-32% y/y.
• Meta’s revenue has exceeded management’s mid-point guidance by an average of 4.2% in the most recent eight quarters, signaling revenue growth of 35% in Q1 2026.
• Guidelines ad index which tracks actual digital ad spend in the U.S. indicate digital ad spend grew by an average of 10.3% in Jan-Feb versus 10.7% in Q4 2025. But Meta’s revenue is significantly outperforming digital ad spend as seen in Q4 2025.
• Publicis and Inventus Media (advertising agencies that supply the likes of Meta with customers) reported revenue that were in line with estimates and maintained the revenue guidance for the year, with Publicis CEO saying he hasn’t seen any slowdown in marketing spend. S4 CEO Martin Sorrell also said there are signs marketing spending is beginning to stabilize and improve.
• Revenue growth rate will also benefit from FX tailwind of around 2.8% (management is guiding 4%).

Assumes R&D costs to grow by 45%: 5% sequential growth rate as seen in Q4 2025, driven by compensation for new technical talent hired in 2025 and in 2026 (as signaled by management-page 2)

Assumes M/S costs growth rate of 6%: Mainly guestimate based on trends seen in Q4 2025.

Assumes G&A costs growth rate of 35%: Driven by youth-related lawsuits and also to bring it to almost the same level as Q3 and Q4 2025. But it’s largely guestimate.