This article is being updated!
Return to: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/q1-2026-bumble-earnings/566/2?u=aron
See also: Q4 2025 Bumble Earnings - very positive developments | Bumble: Ai will revolutionize matchmaking | Q1 2026 Match Group Earnings
Earnings preparations: ‣ | 🔔 Q1 2026 Earnings Calendar
Results materials: Q1 2026 Press Release
<aside>
💡
Observations
- Sequential improvement in Bumble app payers.
- AI matchmaker to arrive in Q4, a bit later from expected timeline.
- Bumble 2.0 will be launched in the coming weeks.
- Bumble has (forum post) around 18 m MAUs versus 22 m prior to quality reset→ first time that we are getting such important data point!
- Despite 85% decrease in performance marketing, payer registrations only fell 2% (forum post)
- Q1 results were in line with estimates but Q2 revenue guidance fell short of expectations.
- Early tests show good reception of the AI matchmaker.
- Q2 2026 payers likely to show sequential improvement again as pricing will likely be much weaker due to strengthening of USD and strong comps.
</aside>
Q1 2026 Bumble Earnings Cautiously Bullish Outlook (Edit)
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11RxL0YGcwhBI-mpKCGgd1WvCX1DRzBHvBBrlcsTKca8/edit?pli=1&gid=1130743407#gid=1130743407](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11RxL0YGcwhBI-mpKCGgd1WvCX1DRzBHvBBrlcsTKca8/preview?pli=1&gid=1130743407#gid=1130743407)
Q1 2026 Bumble Earnings Bullish and Bearish arguments
Key Assumption for Q1 2026 Base Model
Bumble payers decline of 23.8%:
- A slight improvement from Q4 2025 as management expects sequential improvement in 2026.
- 80% of the payer decline in Q3 2025 was self-inflicted i.e. caused by safety and trust features and reduced marketing spend.
- Bumble is bringing back so performance marketing, hence the sequential improvement in the decline of payers.
Bumble app average revenue per user (ARPU) growth of 12.5%:
- Boosted by FX tailwind of around 4.6% and price optimization in Q2 2025 and Q3 2025.
Gross profit margin growth of 1.4% y/y:
- Assumes 1.4% tailwind from alternative payment system.
Selling and market expenses decline by $9 m sequentially: Given Q1 is usually lower than Q4 of the previous year by around $9 m.
General and administrative expenses decline by 15%: Due to discipline cost management and the fact that Q4 2025 Sells and marketing costs fell 10% y/y