Q2 2026 Meta Platforms Earnings

This article is a work in progress!

See also: ‣ | [Q1 2026 Meta Platforms Earnings

Revenue will grow 27% y/y

Tinuiti Ads Benchmark report signals Meta’s revenue could grow 27%-32% y/y.
Meta has beaten management’s midpoint revenue guidance by an average of 3.9% in the most recent nine quarters (ending Q1 2026) compared to 4.1% in the most recent eight quarters ending Q4 2025. Management’s midpoint guidance for Q2 2026 is a revenue growth of 25.22%. However, mid-point guidance beat has been decelerating in the last three quarters i.e. Q1 2026 was 2.4% versus 4.2% in Q4 2025. I will assume mid-point beat of around 1.4%.
Meta has consistently outperformed the digital market ad spend. According to Guidelines, U.S. digital advertising spend (actual measurement) rose 10.9% and 9.4% y/y in April and May respectively versus 9.5% in Q1 2026.
I expect FX to be roughly in line with management’s guidance of 2%.

Cost of revenue growth of 45% y/y

Largely driven by depreciation as 2026 and 2027 capex is likely to rise to $152 B and $215 B, respectively
- Meta expects to bring 7 GW of compute in 2026 and 14 GW in 2027: Declining cash flow generation due to rising Capex
- Capex estimate for 2026 are largely based on management’s guidance of $125-145 B (slight increase to accommodate continues guidance upgrades).
- 2027 Capex is based on management’s capex guidance for 2026, 2025 capex and 14 GW to be brought online next year. If 7GW coming online in 2026 will lead to capex of $152 B (my estimate), additional 7GW next year would likely increase capex to around $225 B.

R&D growth of 50% y/y

R&D growth rate has risen by around 10% sequentially in the most recent three quarters, driven by higher infrastructure operating expenses and employee compensation to support AI.

M&S growth of 6% y/y