Bumble TRA - Tax liability due to key stakeholders due to IPO process

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Interpretations

Variant A) Large stakeholder (including founder) do not believe in company and want to hedge their bets by getting money upfront and reducing their stakes

Variant B) Mainly Blackstone (major shareholders) want to get out as they lost faith. Founders sees it as an opportunity to buy back liabilities at more than 50% return and genuinely simplify things for the company (but: in this process she old also had to agree to sell her own TRA liabilities - at the same discount)

→ Overall logic: The more successful the company is the better it is to buy out liabilities. (Buyers perspective) Or the higher the risk of the company failing the better it is to sell the liabilities. (Sellers perspective)

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What do you think about this? The company portrays it as positive but is it truly positive for shareholders of common stock for the company or not? (I don't have very strong background knowledge on this type of transaction. Please apply background knowledge)
In this case it was for bumble. How much have been the cash savings and outflows for the TRA each year in the last years? Do you think the remaining value on the balance sheet as of Q3 2025 is realistic?

Maybe there was payment in 2024 (10-K p.96) of around 20m? but would require more research

Aron’s assessment: The TRA buyout which carried 50% discount and whose payments ($27-59 million per year for 15 years) could signal that insiders are cautious on the company’s future profitability?

Q2 2025 management notes on TRA:

As of mid-2025, Bumble expected to pay about $685 million under TRA over roughly 15 years.
Annual payments were projected to range $27.6–58.7 million per year, depending on future taxable income.
Payments only occur if Bumble generates enough taxable profits to use those tax deductions.
GPT 5: What does this statement means?
Yesterday Bumble said, it has reached an agreement for an early termination and settlement of the Tax Receivable Agreement (“TRA”), for an aggregate price of approximately $186 million (the “TRA Buyout”). Could it mean that Herd and Blackstone doesn't expect the company to make a lot of profits, hence no TRA benefits or fear bankruptcy, both leading to total loss of that book value?
Wolfe Herd received $8.2 million from the termination of TRA