Related topics: Meta Platforms user engagement continues improving

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Update

• March 30, 2026: Sora was shutdown due to cost constraints and declining userbase. </aside>

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Overview

• OpenAI’s TikTok-like Sora threatens to usher in a new social media for AI-generated content after it topped US Apple app store with more than 1 million downloads in one week: Sora user reception
• Meta Platforms launched a similar feature called Vibes one week earlier but it didn’t received the good reception that Sora got: Sora third-party tests </aside>

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Investor Takeaway

• Sora is certainly a risk to Meta Platforms given its strong reception and GPT’s strong performance. However, given that Meta Platforms has strong network effects, financial muscle and new strong AI team, I currently don’t view it as an existential threat. </aside>

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Prediction

• Sora unlikely to be a major risk to Meta Platforms’ user engagement in the short-term.
• MM: Small risk as of now given Meta’s super strong moats (everyone build their profile on Instagram) but if it accelerates there could be a real problem or also panic in the stock (at least temporarily) so it’s important to follow it closely. </aside>

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Competitive ranking

• Sora is better than Meta’s Vibes: Research on Sora 2 </aside>

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Bullish arguments

• Strong network effects at Meta Platforms, making it hard for users to leave the platforms. Instagram alone has 3 billion monthly active users: Meta Platforms user engagement continues improving
• I expect (Aron) Meta Platforms to respond swiftly and materially given its financial muscle (Stable balance sheet and cash flow generation).
• Meta’s newly recruited AI talent are top-ranking, helping Meta catch up on consumer-facing products: Superintelligence Lab & new strong AI talent increases Meta’s AI competitiveness
• It faces opposition from creative associations due to copyrights, derailing its scale: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/caa-open-ai-sora-copyright-talent-agency.html
• Performance of Meta’s Vibes as of November 9 is good: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/meta-platforms-ai-developments/136/175?u=aron </aside>

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Key Downsides

• Sora has been received very well and third-party tests are positive.
  • Research on Sora 2
    • Sora user reception
    • Sora third-party tests
• Sora could divide social media into two (AI-generated media and human content media such as Meta Platforms). AI-generated social media could take some market share from the likes of Meta Platforms since users may not want to mix both content (Aron’s theory).
• OpenAI’s execution is superior than that of Meta Platforms when it comes to generative AI models which power these video models: Meta AI LLM performance and competitiveness (Superintelligence) yet to catch up with rivals </aside>

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