See also: Valuation model

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Projections

• Aron: I estimate that Bumble achieve $21 million in cost savings in 2026 from alternative payment system. This is only estimate of alternative payment system for iOS. There is also potential cost savings of around $5 million from Android.
• MM: In order to be more conservative let’s only calculate with $10 or 15 million max cost savings in our models for three reasons 1) again to be conservative 2) bumble users might be overall more willing to pay a higher price and less willing to go to an alternative payment system </aside>

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Methodology

• Methodology is based on Match Group’s assumptions and cost-savings estimate for their alternative payment system : Alternative payment system </aside>

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Assumptions

• Uses the same assumptions used by Match Group management since it’s the same iOS and proportion of USA revenue for both companies are almost the same.

  Match Group assumptions: Alternative payment system

  Proportions of USA revenue for both: Bumble Alternative Payment System (Valuation Model)

• Bumble management expects to recognize full cost-savings from alternative payment system in Q4 2025, meaning by next year it will be fully rolled out: Alternative Payment Systems </aside>

Google sheet (Edit)

[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11RxL0YGcwhBI-mpKCGgd1WvCX1DRzBHvBBrlcsTKca8/edit?gid=1030040287#gid=1030040287](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11RxL0YGcwhBI-mpKCGgd1WvCX1DRzBHvBBrlcsTKca8/preview?gid=1030040287#gid=1030040287)

To do:

• [ ] Estimate cost of revenue breakdown between server costs and app store costs (based on available informations)
• [ ] Project cost of revenues (they might actually go up as a % to revenue even though revenue comes down as server and other cost will still be the same)
• [ ] Factor in maybe 10million? additional savings from alternative payment systems.