Q3 2025 Sixt Earnings

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Discussion of Results

15.6% larger fleet while revenue is up only 7.8% concerning?
Other operating expenses strongly up - a problem?
Lower cashflows - a problem? </aside>

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Aron’s assessment:

Overall, despite revenue for Q3 missing our estimates, the bottom lines developed nicely. EBT and EPS were EUR 28 million and EUR 0.3 above our estimates, respectively. The only concerning issues are the 2025 revenue and EBT guidance which missed our estimates by EUR 64-78 million and EUR 10-20 million, respectively. This is probably due North America, which is not developing as expected.

Europe and Germany revenue were in-line with my estimates.
North America was about EUR 12 to 17 million lower than my estimates.
As a result, Q3 revenue was EUR 5 to 19 million lower than my estimate.
EBT was EUR 28 million higher than my lower-point estimate.
Depreciation of rental vehicles was EUR 29 million higher than my lower estimate, largely driven by that of North America which rose 7%.
Personnel expenses only rose 1.5% during the quarter, significantly below my growth rate estimate of 8%-12%, alleviating my concerns of rising personnel expenses.
FX-neutral, North America revenue grew 6.6% (page 1 of Q3 report)→ Still very work!
Sixt said EBT growth was due in particular to its strategy of expanding fleet in-line with demand while still keeping it tight. </aside>

Q3 2025 Sixt’s Positive Outlook

Metric	Q2 2025	Y/Y	Q3 2025 Aron’s Expectation	YoY Growth	Q3 2025 actual Numbers	2025 Aron’s Expectation	YoY Growth	2025 Management Guidance
EBT	EUR 107 M	+70.6%	EUR 230-242 M	-6.6% to -1.8%	EUR 258.4 M	EUR 435-EUR 445 M	+30.2% to +33.2%	EUR 425 M
Revenue	EUR 1,083	+7.4%	EUR 1,330-1,344 M	+7.0% to +8.2%	EUR 1,325 M	EUR 4,314-4,328 M	+7.8% to +8.2%	EUR 4,250 M
North America revenue	EUR 335 M	+4.8%	EUR 399-404 M	+5.0% to +6.7%	EUR 387 M	EUR 1,416-1,421 M	+7.7% to +8.1%
EPS	EUR 1.67	+62.2%	EUR 3.58-3.77	-6.4% to -1.5%	EUR 3.88	EUR 6.77-6.91	+30.7% to +33.4%
Germany revenue	EUR 292 M	+1.5%	EUR 334-337 M	+1.0% to +1.9%	EUR 337 M	EUR 1,744-1,750 M	+12.8% to +13.2%
Europe revenue	EUR 456 M	+13.7%	EUR 597-603 M	+12.2% to +13.2%	EUR 601 M	EUR 1,154-1,157 M	+1.0% to +1.3%
Depreciation of rental vehicles	EUR 147 M	-35.2%	EUR 153-155 M	-23.2% to -22.4%	EUR 182 M
Personel expenses	EUR 185 M	+8.5%	EUR 199-204 M	+8.6% to +11.2%	EUR 186 M

Q3 2025 Sixt’s Positive Outlook

Management guidance and analysts’ estimates

Analysts are cautiously bullish on Sixt’s Q3 2025 revenue and earnings

Competitor expectations and results

Insights on travel demand in Mediterranean region (i.e Greece, Italy, Spain)