Return to: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/q1-2026-sixt-earnings/568/2?u=aron | 🔔 Q1 2026 Earnings Calendar

See also: **Sixt Valuation Model (Google Sheets) | Q4 2025 Sixt Earnings | ‣**

Results materials:

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Aron’s post-earnings observations and recommendation:

Recommendation:

While strong quarterly results were stable, with better-than-expected revenue growth in Europe (including Germany) offsetting less-than-expected revenue growth in North America, fleet expenses continue rising significantly faster than revenue growth. However, I like that repairs, maintenance and reconditioning costs only rose 5% y/y during the quarter, a deceleration from 17% last quarter. This may indicate that the measures put in place by management may be working. The major driver of the fleet expenses seem to be those associated with infleeting such as insurance and registration fees.

North America FX-neutral revenue rose 9.2% y/y, below my estimate of around 13%. FX headwinds were 11.1%, versus my estimate of 9.1%. However, the reported y/y revenue decline was stable relative to Q4 2025. Since FX headwinds worsened by at least 1 percentage point versus Q4 2025, FX-neutral revenue growth likely improved by at least 1 percentage point as well.

The strong acceleration in Europe (including Germany) revenue growth may have been driven by flight reroutings from Middle East to Europe and rebound in economic growth as noted by management in its analyst presentation (opportunities section, page 12).

Given that rental vehicle depreciation continues to improve, North America revenue is stabilizing (with FX headwinds likely temporary), and I continue to believe Sixt can rein in costs in the near term, I maintain a Buy rating on the preference shares, especially on further weakness.

Observations:

• No improvement in North America revenue performance as I expected. Revenue growth of 9% FX neutral versus my estimate of 11%. Overall year-over-year decline stabilized.
• Germany and Europe rental revenue growth significantly accelerated. Germany rental revenue growth of 11.7% versus my estimate of 6.5% and Europe rental revenue growth of 16.8% versus my estimate of 10%.
• Fleet expenses growth accelerated further. Growth of 19.3% versus my estimate of 13%.
• Personnel expenses growth accelerated further. Growth of 7% versus my estimate of 2%.
• Depreciation and amortization expenses were in line with my estimate. Decline of 8.3% versus my estimate of -7.3%.
• Sixt said they have launched its Sixt ONE Loyalty program in all the 13 corporate countries and around 1 m members have joined it, up from 300k as at March 2026. </aside>

Q1 2026 Sixt Earnings Bullish Outlook (Edit)

[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t-zXAYaHfrbb6Pa2B1Y3xIleK8nyVfr2rWATZSi1Ero/edit?gid=1918526520#gid=1918526520&range=DG2:DH99](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t-zXAYaHfrbb6Pa2B1Y3xIleK8nyVfr2rWATZSi1Ero/preview?gid=1918526520#gid=1918526520&range=DG2:DH99)

Q1 2026 Sixt Earnings Bullish and Bearish Arguments

Key Assumptions for Q1 2026 Base Model

Germany

Assumes rental revenue growth of +6.5% (Actual: +11.7%)

• German’s GDP grew by 0.3% in Q1 2026, 0.2% in Q4 2025 and was in contradictory territory in Q2 2025 and Q3 2025: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/eurozone-gdp/242/15?u=aron
• The rebound in German’s GDP from 0% growth in Q3 2025 to 0.2% growth in Q4 2025 led to a rebound in Sixt’s Germany rental revenue growth from 1.6% y/y to 6.10% y/y: Valuation Model (Google Sheets).

Assumes Germany Depreciation of rental vehicles as % of Germany revenue will be 10.75% (Actual: 10.22%)

• Based on trends in the last four quarters. Germany depreciation of rental vehicles as percentage of Germany revenue fell by 5.5%, 5.3%, 3.8% and 2.6% in Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2025 respectively.
• Assumes that of Q1 will fall by 1.7%.
• Europe used car prices continue to grow mildly: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/automotive-industry-used-vehicle-pricing/396/29?u=aron

Assumes Germany interest income as % of Germany revenue will be 5.0% (Actual: 5.29%)

• Based on trends in the last four quarters. Germany interest income as percentage of Germany revenue fell by an average of 4.1% in the latest three quarters and the trend appears stable.

Assumes Germany interest expense as % of Germany revenue will be 11% (Actual: 9.75%)

• Germany interest expense as percentage of Germany revenue fell by an average of 1.9% in the latest three quarters.