Bumble tailwind from alternative billing system

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Overview

No large savings or impact on the business. Minor factor. See projections below. </aside>

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Projections

Latest update: 2026-February - Estimates by Aron - Confidence Level: 70%

2026: Savings from alternative payment systems 13.3m or 1.6pp gross margin improvement ($32m cost savings - $18.7 m revenue headwind)
Q4 2025: Saving from alternative payment systems of 3.4m or 1.2pp gross margin improvement ($7.5m cost savings - $4.1 m revenue headwind) </aside>

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Methodology

Uncertainties: Adoption rates, Revision of Apple Decision, better retention effect

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Assumptions

Users who don’t want to use Apple or Android in-app payments can use **Bumble web payments.**
Assumes 30%, 40% and 50% adoption rate in Q3 2025, Q4 2025 and 2026 respectively
Assumes App Store fee falls to 4% from 25% while Play Store fee falls to 4% from 18%
Assumes Europe accounts for around 20% of total revenue
Assumes full rollout in Q4 2025 (?) and management continues to offer discounts (around 10%) to encourage uptake
Assumes 70% of U.S. revenue passes through App Store while 30% passes through Google
Assumes EU App Store fee falls to 18% from 30% while Play Store fee remains at 15%, but tailwind only seen in 2025 since it’s one time
Discounts impact revenue while App Store and Google Play Store impacts cost of revenue </aside>

Google sheet (Edit)