Bumble declining user trends, dating fatigue in Gen Z. Payer shrink 15%+ a year

<aside> 💡

Investor Takeaway

Users are on declining trajectory. Even at a normalized rate they could be down 10-15%+ a year in 2026 maybe the same rate as Tinder. It could be even worse
Declining User Trends & dating fatique esp. in new generation Z + competition from Hinge. (Note: Going against the trend is not a classical play)
Dating needs change from one generation to the next, hence there is risk that AI Matchmaker doesn’t get strong reception as the new generation does not like online dating.
Drastic revenue decline projection for Q4 2025 (-17% y/y) - Accelerating from Q3 2025
Trends of declining users. Safety and pause of performance marketing contributed 80% y/y to the decline (Overall decline in Q3 2025 = 18.3%). They say trends might improve in Q1 2026 but this is far from certain.
User perception on Bumble app among women is still stable. Complaints against the app are mainly coming from men. However, the app is currently losing a lot of payers due to its safety and product features that it’s launching. I expect normalization in payers next year as long as user perception among women stays stable. </aside>

<aside> 🤔

Arons Assessment

[ ] To add: Assessment (thesis) & supporting evidence for it (highlight most important datapoints you found which have most weight). (+ more ideas how to go more in depths) </aside>

<aside> 📈

Key Growth Drivers

In early 2025 through March, user consideration among US women was stable even as user consideration among US users declined: Bumble User Consideration (Google Sheets)
Complaints against Bumble from women are currently low.

User reviews and complaints
Google search interests for Bumble are mostly stable: [Extensive Data in Google Sheets (Edit)](https://curved-newsboy-c80.notion.site/Extensive-Data-in-Google-Sheets-Edit-2be950cb737780aca801cfc877708e86) </aside>

<aside> ⚠️

Key Downsides

It seems Bumble has been thriving on “perception” that it is safer for women, it may lose users once that perception diminishes:
- No tangible evidence suggesting that Bumble is safer than the likes of Hinge
Risk of woman who want intentional dating migrate to Hinge in key markets
Bumble is currently facing a strong decline in payers mainly due to product and safety features initiated by the company as well as rising dating fatigue: Bumble Paying Users (Google Sheets)
Reviews, especially from men are highly negative: User reviews and complaints </aside>